(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) - A month ago, Bahrain was set to ex plode. Today, it's a ticking bomb that threatens an even bigger explosion next to the HQ of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet -- and on the border of the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia.
The respite had a price. Oil-rich Arab states coughed up $10 billion for the island state's social problems. The Saudis, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also provided 4,000 soldiers and policemen to beef up security in a country with some 700,000 people.
Unprecedented repression also played a part. More than 800 people have been arrested, while 150 others have "disappeared."
The Bahraini drama started as a smaller-scale version of the "Arab Uprising" against despots in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya.
Bahraini protesters had moderate demands: a new government headed by a prime minister chosen by the parliament (Council of Deputies). They hoped that free elections would produce a fairer representation of the population in a parliament that, they insisted, should get full legislative powers. Shiites account for 80 percent of the population -- but for only 14 of the parliament's 40 members.
The protesters also demanded better social services in pockets of poverty that exist alongside some of the Persian Gulf's richest neighborhoods.
The movement couldn't be ignored. At one point, it assembled more than 100,000 people. Pearl Square, a crossroads turned into assembly point for protesters, became a source of moral authority for this archipelago of 32 islands.
For a while, a moderate faction also seemed to exist in the ruling Al Khalifa family, headed by Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad. Informal "dialogues" between Salman and a delegation representing the protesters gave shape to a "National Concord" designed to move the nation toward democracy.
Connected to the kingdom by a bridge, Bahrain is regarded by the Saudis as an extension of the kingdom in all but name. The message from Riyadh to Bahrain's King Hamad bin Issa was that the Saudis wouldn't tolerate a Shiite-dominated government in Manama.
What started as a pro-democracy movement became a cover for a clash between Saudi Arabian Wahhabis and Bahraini Shia over a true democracy and it will help to shape the new Middle East emerging from the "Arab Uprising" and the US retreat under President Obama.
For the moment, Saudi Arabia has occupied Bahrain. But the time bomb still ticks.
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